Skip to content

Enhance analysis methodologies with temporal analysis, Bayesian updating, and cross-methodology linkage #1554

@pethers

Description

@pethers

📋 Issue Type

Documentation / Architecture

🎯 Objective

Enhance the 6 analysis methodologies in analysis/methodologies/ with practical temporal analysis sections, Bayesian updating worked examples, cross-document pattern detection protocols, and workflow-specific application guidance. Currently the methodologies describe concepts but lack actionable implementation details for AI agents.

📊 Current State

The 6 methodology guides (4,857 total lines) are comprehensive in theory but have gaps:

Methodology Lines Gap
ai-driven-analysis-guide.md 1697 ✅ Strong — v4.0, well-structured. Missing: worked examples of per-file analysis output
political-swot-framework.md 642 Describes Cross-SWOT interference and TOWS matrix but lacks worked examples showing how to track SWOT changes across days (temporal SWOT evolution)
political-risk-methodology.md 464 Describes Bayesian updating in theory but no worked example showing how to revise risk scores when new evidence arrives (e.g., Lagrådet opinion published)
political-classification-guide.md 484 Solid classification framework. Missing: committee-to-domain mapping table (currently in code only, should be canonical here)
political-style-guide.md 904 Good intelligence writing standards. Missing: concrete bad→good rewrite examples for each banned pattern
political-threat-framework.md 866 Attack Trees and Kill Chain well-described. Missing: how to integrate threat findings with SWOT (cross-methodology linkage)

Recent analysis output quality issues tied to methodology gaps:

  • Week-ahead synthesis (2026-04-03) produced "Documents Analyzed: 0" — no methodology guidance on empty-data scenarios
  • Weekly review (2026-04-04) lacks temporal trend analysis despite risk-methodology describing "Bayesian updating"
  • Realtime analysis (2026-04-04) has excellent quality — this is the model to generalize

🚀 Desired State

1. Temporal Analysis Protocol (new section in risk-methodology.md)

  • Worked example: "On Day 1, Risk R2 (ECHR challenge) scored L:3 × I:4 = 12. On Day 3, Lagrådet published favorable opinion → revise L:2, new score = 8"
  • Include re-scoring triggers (committee hearing, vote outcome, court ruling, budget publication)
  • Define staleness rules: risk scores older than 7 days without new evidence should flag for review

2. Cross-SWOT Evolution Tracking (new section in swot-framework.md)

  • Template for "SWOT Delta" between days: what changed, what persists, what's new
  • Inter-quadrant migration: when a Strength becomes a Weakness (e.g., coalition unity → internal tensions)
  • Cross-document SWOT aggregation protocol for weekly/monthly reviews

3. Empty Data Handling Protocol (new section in ai-driven-analysis-guide.md)

  • Clear protocol when MCP returns 0 documents
  • Lookback strategy (try previous 5 business days)
  • Minimum analysis output even with no new documents (carry forward active risks, update temporal indicators)

4. Committee→Domain Canonical Mapping (new section in classification-guide.md)

  • Authoritative table of 15 Riksdag committees → policy domains (currently only in code)
  • This becomes the single source of truth referenced by both code and AI agents

5. Bad→Good Rewrite Examples (new section in style-guide.md)

  • For each of the 8 banned patterns, show: original banned text → rewritten intelligence-grade text
  • Include the specific evidence points and dok_ids used in the rewrite

6. Cross-Methodology Linkage (new section in threat-framework.md)

  • How threat findings feed into risk assessment (threat severity → risk likelihood)
  • How SWOT Threats differ from dedicated threat analysis (scope, depth, framework)
  • Integration protocol for synthesis summary: how to weave together SWOT + Risk + Threat

🔧 Implementation Approach

Files to modify (scoped to analysis/methodologies/ only — no code changes):

  • analysis/methodologies/political-risk-methodology.md — Add §Temporal Analysis Protocol, §Bayesian Updating Worked Example
  • analysis/methodologies/political-swot-framework.md — Add §SWOT Evolution Tracking, §Cross-Day SWOT Delta
  • analysis/methodologies/ai-driven-analysis-guide.md — Add §Empty Data Protocol, §Per-File Output Example
  • analysis/methodologies/political-classification-guide.md — Add §Committee→Domain Canonical Mapping
  • analysis/methodologies/political-style-guide.md — Add §Bad→Good Rewrite Examples
  • analysis/methodologies/political-threat-framework.md — Add §Cross-Methodology Linkage

🤖 Recommended Agent

documentation-architect — Technical documentation improvement with cross-reference consistency.

✅ Acceptance Criteria

  • Each methodology file has 1-2 new sections addressing identified gaps
  • Bayesian updating has a complete worked example with dates, scores, and evidence
  • Committee→domain mapping table matches the 15 committees
  • At least 4 bad→good rewrite examples in style guide
  • Cross-methodology linkage section connects SWOT↔Risk↔Threat flows
  • Empty data protocol specifies clear lookback rules
  • All Mermaid diagrams render correctly
  • Version numbers incremented in each file's metadata header

📚 References

  • analysis/methodologies/ — All 6 methodology files
  • SHARED_PROMPT_PATTERNS.md §TOP 10 QUALITY ISSUES
  • analysis/daily/2026-04-04/realtime-1212/ — Model high-quality output to generalize
  • analysis/daily/2026-04-03/week-ahead/synthesis-summary.md — Example of empty analysis gap

🏷️ Labels

type:documentation, priority:high

Metadata

Metadata

Type

No type

Projects

No projects

Milestone

No milestone

Relationships

None yet

Development

No branches or pull requests

Issue actions